reposted from Rachel Barber and Jessica Guynn
There's still a heavy demand for workers. It's in blue-collar jobs
White-collar workers in AI-exposed fields are looking at the skilled trades and asking themselves whether they made the right career choice.
New research suggests it may be reasonable for them to wonder. Americans fear AI could lead to job losses, so they're looking to fields they think are more secure.
Demand for workers in the skilled trades remains substantial and the pipeline of new entrants is not keeping pace as older workers retire, according to a new national report from the Alliance for America's Skilled Trades.
If that demand is not met, Ford CEO Jim Farley said Americans may start to notice the worker shortage. It'll start small. A local highway may take longer and cost more to build. An auto technician shortage could mean drivers face longer wait times when getting their car repaired.
But, when a plumber or electrician is needed at a water-treatment plant, or to keep an ambulance running in an emergency, their absence could have "life or death" consequences, he said.
The demand for skilled trade labor and the future of work are topics of conversation in the Farley household. Despite being a multimillionaire executive, Farley encouraged his teenage son Jameson to learn to work with his hands after he told his dad he didn't see a need to go to college. That comment sparked a debate, but the pair landed on a solution: Jameson would learn to weld in the summer and go to college. On the weekends, he's working as a race mechanic — something he probably looks forward to more than his business administration classes, Farley said.
"The air we breathe is a four-year degree," Farley said in an interview with USA TODAY.
He is one of several industry leaders trying to "break this myth" that attending college to prepare for a corporate 9-to-5 is superior to a career in the skilled trades. Hands-on work "awakens something that's kind of pretty self-evident that we've lost as a society," Farley said.
"Let's treat the uncertainty that these kids have now with getting a job after college the right way, which is to reconfigure things," he added.
Demand for skilled trades workers
While the definition of "skilled trades" can vary, Matt Sigelman, president of the Burning Glass Institute, said researchers define it as work that is hands-on, physical, and requires meaningful preparation.
Of 124 occupations that fall into that category, demand for workers in 86 is expected to either grow or hold steady over the next decade, the Alliance for America's Skilled Trades report said. It estimates that employers will need to fill about 1.7 million openings each year through 2035.
Researchers estimate there will not be enough workers to meet that demand. Roughly 55 people are being prepared for every 100 workers needed nationally, they said. A Labor Shortage Index included in the research found that workers are most in demand for jobs including mechanics, maintenance workers, millwrights, electricians, carpenters, HVAC mechanics and installers, plumbers and automotive service technicians.
Demand for skilled trade laborers exists across the country, but it varies based on the number of currently available workers, training pathways and local labor market conditions. Florida and Arizona face the highest demand pressure, while West Virginia and Michigan face the lowest, the research found.
"There's a lot of workers moving to certain parts of the country where there's more projects or more growth in employment. That's an old story. It makes sense. It bears out in skilled trades just as much as elsewhere," Sigelman told reporters, adding what's interesting is that "these fast-growing states are essentially importing the workers that they're failing to train."
Interest, but a lack of follow through
Worker shortages in the trades may not be due to a lack of interest, but a lack of follow through.
At 71% and 81%, respectively, most teens and parents said they would be proud if they or their child pursued a skilled trade, and 95% of counselors view trade school as valuable and credible, the research found.
Yet it also revealed a minority (28%) of counselors recommend apprenticeship.
Even if a person starts one, only 48 out of 100 complete it and just 29 enter a trade occupation within five years of leaving the apprenticeship. Among those who enter a related post-secondary program, 48 out of 100 finish, and 34 go on to work in a skilled trade.
"The central implication is clear: strengthening the skilled trades workforce requires more than growing the pipeline," Maria Flynn, president and CEO of Jobs for the Future, said in the briefing. "It requires making the pathways, the systems, the guidance, and the investment around that workforce better."
Go to college or enter the trades?
The report lands as some question whether a four-year degree is still worth the cost. Nearly 3 in 5 parents said AI is making school "a worse investment" in a WalletHub survey earlier this year. It also comes as recent college graduates are having a tough time squeezing their way into a labor market economists describe as "low-hire, low-fire."
"For the first time in modern history, a bachelor's degree is failing to deliver on its fundamental promise: access to professional employment," Sigelman wrote alongside researchers Gad Levanon, Mariano Mamertino, Mels de Zeeuw and Gwynn Guilford in a Burning Glass Institute report last year. "The traditional pathway from college to career is becoming less reliable."
As of August 2026, the unemployment rate for people ages 25-34 with a bachelor's degree was 3.4%. For high school graduates of the same age, it was 6.2%, according to federal government data.
What stands out: In August, the unemployment rate among workers of the same age with an associate degree in occupational programs that prepared them for a specific job was 2.2% — nearly half the national rate of 4.1%.
While it does not guarantee job security, it may still pay off to go to college in the long run. Americans' median weekly earnings rose in line with their level of education in 2025, according to Labor Department data.
Laura Ullrich, Indeed Hiring Lab's economic research director, said Americans may not have to choose between going to college or entering the trades.
"Right now, if you live in a place that has data centers and you stacked some sort of credential related to electricity of HVAC or water systems onto a four-year degree, that might be a great combination," she said.
Demand doesn't equal an instant job offer
In high-demand markets across the country, experienced plumbers, electricians and HVAC technicians are fielding aggressive calls from recruiters. The shortage of skilled technicians in those areas has sent starting salaries soaring into the mid-six figures.
For those entering the trades, the long-term career outlook offers job security and a stepping stone. Certified apprentices who master their craft can eventually launch their own businesses.
"There's no doubt in my mind that this is going to be a growing need. We get calls every day from companies looking for talent," Troy Latuff, founder and CEO of the Blue Collar Recruiter, a Texas-based recruiting firm and virtual trade school. said. "The talent that's there today is aging out."
Industry experts warn that entry-level candidates still face a challenging hiring environment. Getting a certification or completing an apprenticeship does not guarantee a job offer.
Equipping and training workers represents a significant financial investment so employers are taking a cautious approach to hiring, according to Latuff.
"You might have the certification, but if you don't show up for your interview, or you're late, or you're not responsible or reliable, you’re still not going to get the job," Latuff said. "There is a big need but it doesn't mean they're going to take anybody that just shows up."
Skilled trades aren't for everyone
The shiny promises of a career in the trades do not always match the hype.
Frustrated by a tight corporate job market, Will Ryan, a 24-year-old with an MBA from the University of Nevada, Reno, decided to switch gears. With skilled trade careers touted as AI-proof alternatives to increasingly elusive entry-level white-collar jobs, he set his sights on becoming an electrician and eventually opening his own electrical contracting business.
The reality of working on a major data center project as a union apprentice proved far different. The pay was decent, but working conditions were grueling. The schedule was relentless with 10- to 12-hour shifts six days a week and little time for the training he'd need to launch an independent company.
Despite two professional degrees and a dual income, the region’s soaring cost of living meant all he and his wife could afford was a studio-sized converted barn on a friend’s property. After six months in the union apprenticeship and a brief stint with a non-union contractor, Ryan walked away from the trade.
"My wife is a biomedical engineer. I have my MBA. I think we both probably would have both been art majors if we knew either way we would end up living in a barn," he said.
How will AI affect the trades?
The AI buildout has created new opportunities for some skilled trades workers as companies construct data centers needed to support it across the country.
While the emerging technology has been painted as a threat primarily to white-collar workers, blue-collar jobs will be affected as well, according to Microsoft co-founder and billionaire Bill Gates.
"Although robots are not as far along as AI, eventually their cost will be dramatically lower, too," Gates wrote in an August essay. "I think 'smart' robots will begin to compete with people on some physical tasks — in the construction and hospitality industries, for example — by the end of the decade."
Farley said it's hard to know exactly what the AI buildout's impact will be on skilled trades work, but Ford is already experimenting with repairing cars using augmented reality glasses to be more efficient, he said.
"But it's just about getting more work done in the eight-hour shift than replacing an auto tech," Farley said, adding he believes skilled trades workers will remain in demand.
Sigelman said one of the things that makes him confident about continued skilled trades demand is that much of the work still requires human judgement.
"The more that we are enabling them to take on highly varied and complex tasks, the more resistant these jobs will be to displacement over time," Sigelman said.
